Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct 11, 2024): France has finally aligned its international film strategy, selecting Jacques Audiard's crime musical "Emilia Perez" as its official Oscar entry. This marks a significant shift after opting for riskier choices in recent years. In 2023, they chose "The Taste of Things" over the Palme d'Or-winning "Anatomy of a Fall," while in 2021, the controversial "Titane" was picked over "Happening." With streaming giant Netflix supporting "Emilia Perez" and the film currently building buzz across multiple categories -- including best picture -- this could be the year France ends its over 30-year Oscar drought. The country last claimed the coveted award in 1992 for "Indochine."
In contrast, India's selection this year raises eyebrows. Rather than choosing Payal Kapadia's Cannes runner-up "All We Imagine as Light," the country opted for "Laapataa Ladies." This decision feels reminiscent of the "RRR" snub in 2022, where another internationally acclaimed Indian film was overlooked due to politics and languages. Nevertheless, with Janus Films and Sideshow behind the distribution, there's hope that "All We Imagine as Light" could still secure a nomination in some capacity.
As the Academy expands its international membership, each Oscar ceremony becomes more global, with non-English language films gaining greater recognition. Brazil's submission, Walter Salles' emotionally charged drama "I'm Still Here," is expected to find love from other Academy branches. The film has all the elements to break into major races, like best director, adapted screenplay, and actress for Fernanda Torres. Its powerful emotional resonance could also make it a dark horse contender for the best picture category if the buzz sustains. This follows last year's groundbreaking moment, where -- for the first time -- two non-English language films, "Anatomy of a Fall" and "The Zone of Interest," were nominated for best picture.
Meanwhile, Iranian filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof has garnered substantial attention following the success of his film, "The Seed of the Sacred Fig," which received a special prize at Cannes. Though Rasoulof's film won't represent Iran at the Oscars, Germany, which took home the award in 2022 with Edward Berger's "All Quiet on the Western Front," has chosen the drama to represent it. It was secretly filmed in Iran and centers on an investigating judge in Tehran's Revolutionary Court, whose life unravels amid rising anti-government protests and personal tragedy. Rasoulof made a daring escape from Iran on foot in May to avoid imprisonment, adding an intense real-life layer to its already gripping narrative.
It's not unusual for a country to submit a film that isn't entirely in its native language. In recent years, Denmark selected "Holy Spider," almost wholly spoken in Farsi, and "Flee," a multilingual animated documentary featuring English, Danish, Dari, Swedish, and Russian. Last year's best picture nominee, "The Zone of Interest," spoken in German and filmed in Poland, represented the U.K. due to its British financiers and writer-director Jonathan Glazer. And this year, we have the Spanish-language musical "Emilia" representing France and a silent animated movie "Flow" repping Latvia. This seems par for the course nowadays.
According to Academy rules, a film can be selected as a country's official entry if it is financed by producers or companies from that country or has a majority of its crew members from there. Cannes lists "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" as a U.S., U.K., and Polish co-production, meeting the necessary qualifications.
With the backing of Neon -- the same studio that propelled Bong Joon-ho's "Parasite" to a historic best picture win in 2019 -- "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" could find itself competing in the best picture race if the right momentum builds behind it.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the film has not been named as the official selection for the correlating country. Please note: this list is not final and will be updated as more countries announce their official selections.
