As part of our deep dive into the NFL futures markets, we will be breaking down the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award in today's article. Please see below for all of our NFL coverage so far for the 2024 season.
As for the 2023 award, Christian McCaffrey brought home the hardware, with Justin Jefferson winning in 2022, Cooper Kupp winning in 2021, Derrick Henry winning in 2020 and Michael Thomas winning in 2019. There was a stretch where a quarterback won the award three times in a four year span, but the last QB to win the award was Patrick Mahomes in 2018.
Essentially, the NFL MVP award is reserved for QBs, while the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award has recently gone to the non-QB offensive player with the best counting stats. The QB with the best odds is Lamar Jackson, and he is all the way down at +6500, with the 17th-best odds to win. He is behind his own teammate, RB Derrick Henry. So, with that thought in mind, let's get to the odds and predictions.
Despite winning last year, McCaffrey has the second-best odds to win this year, which is defensible, as running back is a hard position to stay healthy year over year. McCaffrey has been durable each of the last two seasons, but he spent most of 2020 and 2021 injured, only playing in a toal of 10 games in those seasons. We also have not had a player win in back-to-back years since Marshall Faulk did it 25 years ago (1999-2001). Of course, McCaffrey is an outlier in many different ways, so if any running back can buck the trend it would be him.
It is interesting, though, that the three receivers (Jefferson, Kupp, Thomas) to recently win were the first receivers to win the award since Jerry Rice did in 1993. With that said, there is a reason why the rest of the top five contenders are wide receivers, as we are in a new age of the NFL where the running back position is devalued and receivers are putting up better numbers than ever.
Prediction: Ja'Marr Chase (+1200) at DraftKings
Of the top five, the best bet on the board is the Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase, who we are predicting massive things for this season. It does go hand-in-hand with the fact that the Bengals are one of our favorite Super Bowl Super Bowl predictions, as we are expecting a bounce-back season for Joe Burrow and the Bengals as a whole. Part of the logic with Chase is that, of all the receivers in the top five, he is tied to the best quarterback in Burrow.
That is not exactly a hot take, as Dak Prescott is the only QB that could even be argued, but there is a lot of uncertainty going on in Cowboys camp with all three of Prescott, Lamb and linebacker Micah Parsons looking for new deals. Lamb is currently holding out of camp, and there is no end in sight to the contract drama going on in Dallas. Chase is also looking for a new deal, but his situation is not as dire as Lamb's, in part because the Bengals WR is entering his fourth season in the league, while Lamb is is entering year five.
As for Jefferson, he would probably get the most votes as the best wide receiver in the NFL if you polled every coach and GM, but he will be receiving passes from either draft-bust turned NFL journeyman Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy. Either way, it is tough to see Jefferson putting up the stats required to win this award.
So, of all the players in the top five, it came down to Tyreek Hill and Chase. If anybody wants to plant their flag that Hill is going to win, there will certainly be no strong argument here, as he is the favorite for a reason. What it came down to was betting on Burrow over Tua Tagovailoa, and also the fact that the Dolphins have a significantly harder schedule than the Bengals. Under head coach Mike McDaniel the last two seasons, we have seen the Dolphins offense struggle against top defenses.
To be clear, Chase is also capable of putting up video game-type numbers. Last year was a blip as Burrow spent the majority of the year hurt, but in 2021, Chase's rookie year, he put up 1400 yards on 81 receptions for 13 touchdowns. That just so happened to be the only year that both he and Burrow were healthy for the majority of the season. If they can both stay on the field this year, expect similar fireworks from the former LSU teammates.
If you're looking for value outside the top five, our favorite bets there would be Breece Hall (New York Jets) and Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions). With today's NFL focusing more and more on do-it-all running backs that can be weapons in the passing game, Hall and Gibbs might be the two best receiving threats at the position outside of Christian McCaffrey.
Hall was part of a dreadful Jets offense last year, but he still managed to put up 591 receiving yards on a whopping 76 receptions. He was held in check on the ground, with only 994 yards and five TDs on 4.5 yards per carry, as the Jets' offensive line and quarterback play were as bad as it gets last year. With Rodgers at the helm and multiple impact signings, including 2023 second-team All-Pro LT Tyron Smith, added to the OL, you expect the running lanes to not be so congested, and Rodgers showed the ability to utilize his running back in the receiving game with Aaron Jones for years in Green Bay.
As for Gibbs, if he can pick up where he left off late in the 2023 campaign, he will immediately become one of the favorites to win this award. He was brought on slowly to start the year as he was acclimating to the NFL and making rookie mistakes, but he still finished last season with 945 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, with 316 receiving yards on 52 receptions and another TD through the air. Gibbs is lucky enough to be surrounded by one of the best offenses in the NFL, with PFF's No. 1-rated offensive line, plus a QB in Jared Goff who loves to dump it off to the RB.
